Friday, December 14, 2012

Who's afraid of the Fiscal Cliff? Boehner, for one.

If only I had the foresight to buy the domain names for Coca Cola, General Electric, and Toyota back before their CEO's even heard of that 'Interwebs' thing- I could have made a mint! Similarly, I should have trademarked the phrase 'Fiscal Cliff'. It's like someone force-fed it to every politico and talking head in America, with directions to use it in every soundbyte 'til Christmas... Or else. Oh well.

Today, I questioned this Chicken Little hysteria sweeping the nation in a Facebook post. I pointed out that, A) President Obama wrote the sequester prescription, and B) Congress voted to adopt the 10% across the board cut in discretionary spending and return to pre Bush-era tax rates. While we private citizens don't always read the fine print in our 2-year cell phone plans- certainly Congress- with an $8 million per-rep per-year office budget - had someone on staff give it a quick once-over, right? Bueller?

A friend pointed out that this isn't just hysteria. Hundreds of thousands of government jobs could be at stake, and he personally knows of friends in very real danger. Point taken. This is not some academic discussion with no ramifications should the two sides remain in twain. 


However, I pointed out: To the millions who have already lost their jobs in the private sector, and the millions more who have seen their wages drop from $100k to Wal-Mart in one downturn- these past four years have felt pretty real too. Nobody wants to see more unemployment, even if for the selfish reason that we don't need any more competition for the few lower paying jobs available. But we've been bleeding for a long time, and we're running out.

During this discussion, I realized how close we are to the New Year; what better time to start the prognostication wars with my take on what's in store for 2013! Here goes: 

  • We will go over the Cliff.
  • Obama will drive. 
  • Boehner's head will dangle from the rear-view mirror.

When you realize that the alternative to this so-called 'Fiscal Cliff' is a meaningless tax hike for the wealthy that does absolutely nothing other than encourage more money to leave, and eliminate incentives to earn, it all becomes so clear.

Obama will force the Fiscal Cliff, because the goal IS to raise taxes- on everybody- and he's smart enough to know that there is absolutely no way to borrow all the money he needs without substantially increasing revenues. It's a win-win for him; he can blame it all on the Republicans. 

Next comes 'tax reform'. Elimination of deductions, couched as 'loopholes for the rich', but actually things like the mortgage interest deduction. We'll lower the Alternative Minimum Tax, and eliminate business deductions, which, of course, raises taxable income for business owners and sole-proprietors forcing us 'nouveau riche' into higher brackets. 

Add new property taxes, eliminate the investment exemption for the capital gains tax, add more 'sin taxes' on potato chips, sodas, Big Macs, etc. in the name of driving down healthcare costs. Add a 'mileage tax' to the gas tax to compensate for the Transportation revenue lost due to more fuel efficient vehicles on the road. Then, add a VAT tax- because it's all the rage in Europe, where, let's face it, everybody is so much cooler and smarter than us yanks.. 

Yes, the Fiscal Cliff will be jumped. We should all start getting used to the idea, and read up on the history of Argentina for a sneak preview.

If only I could figure out a way to capitalize on this foresight, and make enough money to justify the new taxes.

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